Predictable Arguments About Predictable Voting

A recent complaint about Eurovision is that the voting is too predictable. The critics would have it that you can always tell who is going to get the 10 and 12 points that each country awards. Participating is pointless because ‘Western Europe’ can never win. This is particularly galling as the ‘Big 4’ Germany, France, Spain and the UK fund the EBU that runs the Contest.

The EBU is not of course to be confused with this EBU. But perhaps this is why the UK is forever taking the piss out of the EBU Contest?

I agree up to a point about the predictability of voting, but contend the main charge that the Eurovision is more predictable than ever.

Take a look at the winners.

In the last 14 years since 1995, 14 different countries have won the Eurovision Song Contest. In the last 8 years, they have all been countries that have never won the Eurovision before. When Estonia won in 2001, it had been 12 years since a country that had never won before lifted the crown. That country, Yugoslavia, didn’t exist any more at that point!

How does this compare to the rest of the history of the Eurovision? In the 39 years up to 1995, only 18 countries had won the Contest. In the darkest period of the Contest, from 1992 to 1996, Ireland won 4 out of 5 Contests and the one they lost to Norway in 1995 saw Norway victorious with a half Irish duo.

So is that predictable? 38 years, 18 winners. 5 years, 2 winners! 14 years 14 winners.

There is a predictability though for sure. Let’s assume that we are at the mid-way stage in the voting. Three countries lead; a Nordic one, a Balkan one and a former Soviet one. Let’s call them Iceland, Bosnia and Russia. If Norway is next to cast its vote, you know that the Iceland will get the 12. If Croatia is next to vote then Bosnia will get the points. If Estonia is next to vote, Russia will get the 12.

There are also some cast iron votes: Cyprus and Greece will always exchange 12 points. Germany usually gives Turkey 10 or 12 points. Moldova and Romania usually exchange 12 points too.

When it comes to a phone poll, you can’t stop the 49% of the Bosnian population who are Serbian from picking up the phone to vote for Serbia. You can’t stop the 48% of Latvians who speak Russian as a first language from doing the same for Russia. That said, the Serbians and Russians have not won it year in and year out like the Irish used to, and neither will this year. The call of predictability wears thin then unless you state with certainty prior to the Contest who will win.

Perhaps if a Western European country wants to get Eastern Europe voting for them, they need to throw as much passion and desire to win into the writing, production and staging of their entries as the recent winners have done.