When will America next host an Olympic Summer Games?


I have been interested in the reaction of the US news media to the awarding of the 2016 Summer Olympic Games to Rio. More accurately I have found the reaction to Chicago's defeat fascinating.

In much of the coverage there has been a sense that the US has suffered some cruel injustice. Each time the USOC bid for the games, they should surely be awarded them, seemed to go the tone of much of the reporting.

Despite the USA putting up one of their most likely winning cities as candidate this time, the IOC judged that somewhere else should have their turn. As the USA has hosted 4 of the 18 Summer and Winter Olympic Games in my lifetime, this can only be fair from the perspective of the rest of the World.

So I thought it would be both helpful and fun to provide my American chums with some kind of guideline; some kind of ready reckoner, so they can more accurately judge whether the World is being fair or unfair to them when it comes to the awarding of the right to host a Summer Olympic Games. Each methodology is briefly explained and then the year that the USA can next reasonably expect to host the Summer Olympics is extrapolated.

Continental rotation #1: 5 continents
This sees the Summer Olympics awarded to each continent every 20 years. In the Americas, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Cuba, Chile and Peru have hosted, have bid for or are considering future bids to host a Summer Games and could be seen as viable candidates. If they all take their turn...
Next USA Summer Games: 2136

Continental rotation#2: 4 continents
For the sake of fairness we remove Oceania from the continental stakes as this essentially means Australia would get an Olympics every 20 years. Each continent gets it's shot every 16 years then...
Next USA Summer Games: 2116

Continental rotation#3: 5 continents = 1 Summer Games every 20 years.
This time assume that North America counts as a continent of 3 countries (an idea rejected by FiFA when allocating World Cups, but we're testing every hypothesis here)
Canada and Mexico are considering future bids.
Next USA Summer Games (assuming the next North American games is in 2024): 2064

Population / Viewing figures
Host the Games where the people are at. Host them where you find the greatest potantial audience. China gets to host 1 in every 6 games, as does India, as does Africa, with Europe taking 1 in 12. To work out the allocation of the USA simply divide the Global population of 6.5 billion people by the US's population of 300 million people. The USA would get to host 1 in every 21.6 games.
Next USA Summer Games: 2080

Everyone take their turn
The UN has 192 member states, but the IOC has 205 National Olympic Committees. If each one gets to take their turn...
Next USA Summer Games: 2764

So realistically, based on a fair allocation of the event, the USA cannot expect to host another Summer Olympics until 2064 at the earliest... I would be 90. Of course, even awarding the USA it's 5th ever Summer Olympics in 2064 would still be unfair for some... Why? Read on...

The "queue-jumper clause".
The USA has already hosted 4 Summer Olympic Games. One more, evern than London! To ensure fairness, it could be proposed that the US sits out the next 4 of it's future 'turns' in any given system so that everyone else in the World can catch up with them. In which case:
Continental Rotation #1: Next USA Summer Games: 2496
Continental Rotation 2: Next USA Summer Games: 2416
Continental Rotation 3: Next USA Summer Games: 2208
Population / Viewing Figures: Next USA Summer Games: 2332
Everyone Take Their Turn: Next USA Summer Games: 5068

So basically, if the USA is ever awarded another Summer Games in the lifetime of most people reading this blog, they will be doing better than they should be! I actually have a sneaking suspicion that a proposed joint bid for uber-hip trend centres Seattle-Vancouver 2028 may go down very well, following games in Cape Town 2020 and Delhi 2024. Watch this space.

Of course the great irony in me going into all this time and doing all these sums is that I live in London, the city which has been awarded the games more than any other! Bring on 2012 :)

Comments

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